States Losing Population: The Five U.S. States Shrinking in 2026

The United States population is still growing, but the national increase has slowed sharply, and a small group of states is now losing residents. According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Vintage 2025 state population estimates, five states recorded year-over-year population declines between July 1, 2024, and July 1, 2025: Vermont, Hawaii, West Virginia, New Mexico, and California. These declines are modest in percentage terms, but they highlight a widening demographic divide as most of the country continues to add people.

Key Numbers

• Number of states losing population: 5
• Largest state decline: Vermont, -0.3%
• Second-largest decline: Hawaii, -0.2%
• National population growth rate: 0.5% (2024–2025)
• U.S. population on July 1, 2025: 341,784,857
• Net international migration change: fell from 2.7 million to 1.3 million
• Fastest-growing state: South Carolina, +1.46%
• California decline: -0.02%

Explanation

State population change is driven by three main components: natural change (births minus deaths), net domestic migration (people moving between states), and net international migration (people moving between the United States and other countries). When the sum of these components is negative, a state loses population.

In the 2024–2025 period, the national slowdown was caused mainly by a sizeable reduction in net international migration. The Census Bureau reported that net international migration fell from 2.7 million to 1.3 million. At the same time, natural change remained relatively stable but weak by historical standards. For states that rely on international migration to offset domestic out-migration or low natural increase, the drop was enough to push their total population into negative territory.

It is important to note that these declines are small. California’s decline of -0.02% is nearly flat, and even Vermont’s -0.3% represents a loss of only a few thousand people. However, the direction matters: after a brief post-pandemic uptick, the country’s demographic momentum is fading, and a handful of states are now on the shrinking side of the ledger.

Definition

In this context, a state losing population means that the U.S. Census Bureau’s annual population estimate for the state was lower on July 1, 2025, than it was on July 1, 2024. The estimate includes all residents, regardless of age, citizenship, or housing status, and is based on administrative records, survey data, and demographic methods.

State Comparison

The five declining states are geographically and economically diverse. Vermont and West Virginia are small, rural states with older populations and limited international migration. Hawaii is an island state with high housing costs and persistent out-migration to the mainland. New Mexico has relatively weak domestic migration and lower natural increase. California, the nation’s most populous state, has seen domestic out-migration for years, though its decline in 2024–2025 was extremely small.

• Vermont: Largest percentage decline, driven by weak natural change and limited migration.
• Hawaii: High cost of living and domestic out-migration to the mainland.
• West Virginia: Older population and low natural increase.
• New Mexico: Weak domestic migration and modest natural change.
• California: Continued domestic out-migration, only partially offset by other components.

National Comparison

Nationally, the U.S. population grew by 0.5% between 2024 and 2025, adding about 1.78 million people. That is down from 0.8% in 2023 and 1.0% in 2024. The five losing states contrast sharply with the fastest-growing states: South Carolina (+1.46%), Idaho (+1.44%), North Carolina (+1.32%), and Texas (+1.25%).

“With natural change less of a contributor to growth than it used to be, some states – especially those without positive net domestic migration – are dependent on international migration for their population to grow.” — Marc Perry, senior demographer at the U.S. Census Bureau

Ranking Table

These percentages are rounded and may appear small, but they represent the only states with negative estimated population change in the period.

Year-over-Year Change

The Census Bureau’s Vintage 2025 estimates compare population counts from July 1, 2024, to July 1, 2025. This year-over-year measure is the standard way to track short-term demographic shifts. Because annual changes are often small, demographers also look at longer periods to identify sustained trends.

For the five declining states, the year-over-year changes were all less than half a percentage point. Vermont’s -0.3% was the largest decline, while California’s -0.02% was nearly flat. Even so, the fact that any states are shrinking while the national population still grows is notable.

Factors Behind the Trend

Several factors explain why these states lost population:

• Reduced international migration: The national drop in net international migration from 2.7 million to 1.3 million removed a key source of growth for many states.
• Domestic out-migration: States such as California, Hawaii, and New Mexico have seen more people move to other states than move in, a pattern that can turn negative when other components weaken.
• Weak natural change: Births exceed deaths nationally, but the margin is smaller than in past decades. In older states like Vermont and West Virginia, natural change can be near zero or negative.
• Housing costs and economic factors: High housing costs in California and Hawaii, and limited job growth in some rural areas, contribute to out-migration.

Why It Matters

Population change affects labor supply, consumer demand, tax bases, and political representation. A shrinking state may face a tighter labor market and slower economic growth, but it may also see reduced pressure on housing and infrastructure. For policymakers, understanding whether decline is driven by migration or natural change is critical for planning schools, health care, and transportation.

At the national level, the slowdown in population growth has implications for long-term economic growth and federal programs. The Census Bureau’s finding that international migration fell sharply in 2024–2025 is a key reason the country’s growth rate dropped to its slowest since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methodology

The U.S. Census Bureau produces annual state population estimates using a component-of-change method. The base population is updated with data on births, deaths, and migration. Net domestic migration is estimated from address changes on federal records, while net international migration is estimated from administrative data and survey information. The Vintage 2025 estimates cover the period from July 1, 2024, to July 1, 2025, and were released in January 2026.

Limitations of the Data

Population estimates are not exact counts. They are based on models and administrative records, and they are revised as new data become available. Small year-over-year changes, such as California’s -0.02%, may be within the margin of error and could be revised in future vintages. In addition, the estimates do not capture all undocumented migration or short-term moves, and different sources may report slightly different figures.

Historical Data

The recent slowdown follows a brief post-pandemic rebound. According to the Census Bureau, U.S. population growth was 0.8% in 2023 and 1.0% in 2024, before falling to 0.5% in 2025. The decline in net international migration was the main driver of the slowdown. The five states losing population in 2024–2025 are not necessarily the same as in earlier years, but the pattern of slow growth in the Northeast, parts of the Midwest, and some Western states has been building for decades.

Source & Data Date

Primary source: U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2025 state population estimates, released January 27, 2026, covering July 1, 2024, to July 1, 2025. Additional analysis from SmartAsset’s 2026 study published August 17, 2026, and Newsweek’s August 18, 2026 report. The national population total of 341,784,857 on July 1, 2025, is from the Census Bureau’s January 2026 release.