How Population Growth Affects Congressional Seats: 2030 Apportionment Projections by State

Every decade, the 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are redistributed among states based on population counts. Mid-decade estimates and 2030 projections suggest the South and Mountain West could gain seats, while parts of the Northeast and Midwest may lose them. If 2024 Census Bureau estimates were used today, Texas and Florida would each gain two seats, Arizona and Idaho would each gain one, and Illinois, Minnesota, New York, and Oregon would each lose one.

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Projected Congressional Seat Changes After 2030: Population Shifts by State

New state-level population estimates and mid-decade projections indicate that the 2030 reapportionment of the U.S. House of Representatives could produce some of the largest shifts in congressional representation in recent history. The South and Mountain West are poised to gain seats, while parts of the Northeast, Midwest, and West Coast are likely to lose them, with significant consequences for political power and federal funding.

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