Short Answer
The U.S. Census Bureau’s Vintage 2025 population estimates, released on January 27, 2026, reveal a sharp slowdown in national population growth driven primarily by a historic decline in net international migration. Between July 1, 2024, and July 1, 2025, the United States added 1.8 million people, a growth rate of 0.5%—the slowest since the early COVID-19 pandemic. The slowdown follows a 1.0% growth rate in 2024, the fastest since 2006, and underscores how shifts in immigration can reshape state and national demographic trajectories.
Key Numbers
- U.S. population growth rate 2024–2025: 0.5%
- Absolute population increase 2024–2025: 1.8 million people
- 2023–2024 growth rate: 1.0% (fastest since 2006)
- 2023–2024 absolute increase: 3.2 million people
- 2020–2021 growth rate: 0.2% (historic low during early COVID-19 pandemic)
- 2022–2023 growth rate: 0.8% (post-pandemic uptick)
- Main driver of slowdown: sizeable reduction in net international migration
- Natural change trend: remained relatively stable
Explanation
Population change in the United States is the result of two main components: natural change—the difference between births and deaths—and net international migration—the difference between people moving into the country from abroad and those leaving. At the state level, a third component, net domestic migration, also matters, as people move between states. In 2024–2025, natural change remained relatively stable, but net international migration fell sharply, causing the national growth rate to drop from 1.0% to 0.5%.
The decline in net international migration was the primary reason for the slowdown. After a brief post-pandemic uptick—0.8% in 2023 and 1.0% in 2024—the U.S. population growth rate fell to its slowest pace since 2021, when it was just 0.2%. The absolute increase of 1.8 million people in 2024–2025 was 1.4 million fewer than the 3.2 million added in 2023–2024.
The impact on states is uneven. States that attract more domestic migrants from other parts of the country are somewhat insulated from lower international migration. In contrast, states without positive net domestic migration are especially dependent on international migration to offset natural decrease or domestic out-migration. As Marc Perry, a senior demographer at the Census Bureau, noted, this dependence can determine whether a state’s population grows at all.
Definition
Net international migration (NIM) is the difference between the number of people moving into the United States from other countries and the number moving out to other countries over a specific period. It includes immigrants, emigrants, and the net movement of U.S. Armed Forces and civilian citizens between the United States and abroad. For states, NIM also includes movement from Puerto Rico and other U.S. territories, though the national total focuses on international borders.
Historical Data
The table below summarizes recent annual U.S. population growth rates and absolute changes based on Census Bureau Vintage 2025 estimates.
| Year (July 1–July 1) | Growth Rate | Absolute Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020–2021 | 0.2% | Not specified in release | Historic low during early COVID-19 pandemic |
| 2022–2023 | 0.8% | Not specified in release | Post-pandemic uptick |
| 2023–2024 | 1.0% | 3.2 million | Fastest annual growth since 2006 |
| 2024–2025 | 0.5% | 1.8 million | Slowest since 2021; driven by lower NIM |
National Comparison
At the national level, net domestic migration is zero by definition, so population change is the sum of natural change and net international migration. In 2024–2025, natural change remained relatively stable, while net international migration fell sharply. This contrasts with 2023–2024, when higher net international migration helped push growth to 1.0%, the fastest rate since 2006.
| Component | 2023–2024 Trend | 2024–2025 Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Natural change | Relatively stable | Relatively stable |
| Net international migration | Robust; contributed to 1.0% growth | Sizeable reduction; main reason for slowdown |
State Comparison
Although all states and the District of Columbia saw their growth rates slow in the last year, the reasons differed. States with positive net domestic migration—where more people move in from other states than leave—were somewhat buffered from the decline in international migration. In contrast, states without positive net domestic migration are especially dependent on international migration to offset natural decrease or domestic out-migration. The Census Bureau’s senior demographer Marc Perry highlighted this dynamic.
With natural change less of a contributor to growth than it used to be, some states – especially those without positive net domestic migration – are dependent on international migration for their population to grow. — Marc Perry, senior demographer, U.S. Census Bureau
The initial release did not provide a full state-by-state ranking in the summary materials, but the pattern suggests that states with weaker domestic migration flows may face more acute population stagnation or decline when international migration falls. Detailed state-level data are available in the NST-EST2025-POP and NST-EST2025-CHG tables.
Year-over-Year Change
Between 2023–2024 and 2024–2025, the U.S. population growth rate fell by half, from 1.0% to 0.5%. In absolute terms, the annual increase dropped from 3.2 million to 1.8 million, a decline of 1.4 million people. This is the largest one-year slowdown since the pandemic period and reflects the sensitivity of national growth to immigration levels.
| Period | Growth Rate | Absolute Increase |
|---|---|---|
| 2023–2024 | 1.0% | 3.2 million |
| 2024–2025 | 0.5% | 1.8 million |
Why It Matters
Population growth affects labor force size, housing demand, school enrollment, and federal funding allocations. A slowdown driven by lower international migration can accelerate population aging, reduce workforce growth, and shift political representation over time. For states, the impact is uneven: those already losing domestic migrants may see outright population decline, while fast-growing states may see slower but still positive growth.
International migration has become a critical demographic buffer in many parts of the country, especially as natural change—births minus deaths—has diminished. When international migration falls, states that rely on it to offset domestic out-migration or natural decrease are most exposed to population loss and its economic consequences.
Factors Behind the Trend
According to a Brookings Institution analysis published February 11, 2026, the decline in net international migration coincides with stricter federal immigration policies and expansive deportation efforts, which have led to a noticeable decline in immigrant arrivals and an increase in departures. The Census Bureau itself attributed the slowdown to a ‘sizeable reduction’ in net international migration, while noting that natural change remained relatively stable. Other factors, such as changes in visa processing, border enforcement, and global migration patterns, may also play a role, but the primary driver in the official estimates is the drop in net international migration.
How the Statistic Is Calculated
The Census Bureau produces annual population estimates by starting with the most recent decennial census count (April 1, 2020) and updating it with administrative records and survey data. For each year, the population change is calculated as: births minus deaths (natural change) plus net international migration plus net domestic migration (for states). The national estimate excludes net domestic migration because it sums to zero across all states. Net international migration is estimated using data on international moves, including immigration and emigration of the foreign-born, movement of U.S. citizens, and net movement of Armed Forces. The Vintage 2025 estimates incorporate data through July 1, 2025.
Limitations of the Data
Population estimates are not exact counts; they are based on models and administrative data that can be revised in future vintages. International migration is particularly difficult to measure because it relies on multiple data sources, including surveys and administrative records, and can be affected by changes in methodology or policy. State-level estimates may be less precise for small populations or for components like domestic migration. The initial release also does not provide detailed state rankings in the summary materials, so users should consult the full tables for state-specific figures.
Timeline
- April 1, 2020: Decennial census reference date.
- July 1, 2024–July 1, 2025: Period covered by Vintage 2025 estimates.
- January 27, 2026: U.S. Census Bureau releases Vintage 2025 national and state population estimates.
- February 11, 2026: Brookings Institution publishes analysis of reduced immigration and state population growth.
Source & Data Date
Primary source: U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2025 National and State Population Estimates, released January 27, 2026. Data cover the period April 1, 2020, to July 1, 2025, with annual estimates for July 1, 2024, to July 1, 2025. Additional analysis from the Brookings Institution, published February 11, 2026, was used for context on immigration policy and state impacts.
FAQ
What caused U.S. population growth to slow in 2025?
The slowdown was driven primarily by a sizeable reduction in net international migration. Natural change—the difference between births and deaths—remained relatively stable, so the decline in people moving into the United States from abroad was the main factor.
How much did the U.S. population grow between 2024 and 2025?
The U.S. population increased by 1.8 million people, or 0.5%, between July 1, 2024, and July 1, 2025. This was the slowest growth rate since 2021, when the population grew by 0.2%.
Which states were most affected by the decline in international migration?
States without positive net domestic migration are especially dependent on international migration to grow. While all states and the District of Columbia saw slower growth, those that do not attract more domestic migrants than they lose are most exposed to population stagnation or decline when international migration falls.
How does the Census Bureau calculate net international migration?
Net international migration is estimated using data on international moves, including immigration and emigration of the foreign-born, movement of U.S. citizens, and net movement of Armed Forces. The estimate is part of the annual population estimates process that starts with the decennial census and updates it with administrative records and survey data.
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