U.S. Rental Vacancy Rate: Historical Trends and 2026 Outlook

The U.S. rental vacancy rate reached 7.3 percent in the second quarter of 2026, its highest level since 2017, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The increase reflects a nationwide apartment building boom that has shifted bargaining power toward renters, even as the homeownership rate holds steady at 65.0 percent. This article examines the historical trend, the forces behind the rise, and what the data suggest for the rest of 2026.

Key Numbers

• Q2 2026 rental vacancy rate: 7.3%
• Q2 2026 homeowner vacancy rate: 1.2%
• Q2 2026 homeownership rate: 65.0%
• Q2 2025 rental vacancy rate: 7.0%
• Q1 2026 rental vacancy rate: 7.3%
• Highest rental vacancy rate since: 2017
• Next data release: October 28, 2026

Explanation

The rental vacancy rate is a key indicator of housing market health. It measures the share of rental housing units that are vacant and available for rent. A higher rate means more rental units are sitting empty, which typically gives renters more choices and leverage in lease negotiations. A lower rate signals a tight market, often accompanied by faster rent growth and limited availability.

In the second quarter of 2026, the national rental vacancy rate was 7.3 percent, unchanged from the first quarter and up from 7.0 percent a year earlier. Although the year-over-year change was not statistically significant at the national level, the rate has climbed to its highest point in nearly a decade. The Census Bureau also reported a homeowner vacancy rate of 1.2 percent and a homeownership rate of 65.0 percent, both little changed from the previous year.

Economists attribute the elevated rental vacancy rate primarily to a surge in multifamily construction. A wave of new apartment buildings has increased the supply of rental units faster than demand, especially in the South, Northeast, and Midwest. The West was the only region to record decreases in both rental and homeowner vacancy rates compared with a year earlier. This is a construction story, not an economic collapse, according to Jiayi Xu, economist at Realtor.com.

Definition

The rental vacancy rate is the percentage of the rental housing inventory that is vacant and available for rent. It is calculated by dividing the number of vacant-for-rent units by the total number of rental units—occupied rental units plus vacant-for-rent units—and multiplying by 100. The Census Bureau’s Housing Vacancy Survey (HVS) produces this rate quarterly, along with the homeowner vacancy rate and the homeownership rate.

The homeowner vacancy rate follows the same logic for owner-occupied housing: vacant-for-sale units divided by the total homeowner inventory. In Q2 2026, the homeowner vacancy rate was 1.2 percent, indicating a much tighter market for homebuyers than for renters.

Historical Data

The table below shows the national rental vacancy rate for the five most recent quarters, based on the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’s FRED database, which compiles Census Bureau data.

The rate has risen steadily from 7.0 percent in the second quarter of 2025 to 7.3 percent in the first and second quarters of 2026. This follows a period of very low vacancy rates in the early 2020s, when the COVID-19 pandemic and limited construction created a tight rental market.

Year-over-Year Change

Between Q2 2025 and Q2 2026, the national rental vacancy rate increased by 0.3 percentage points, from 7.0 percent to 7.3 percent. The Census Bureau notes that this change was not statistically different from the rate a year earlier. However, the direction of change is consistent with a gradually loosening rental market.

“Three regions — the South, the Northeast, and the Midwest — posted annual spikes in the second quarter of 2026, with the West being the only region recording decreases in its rental and homeowner vacancy rates.” — The Real Deal, July 30, 2026

Although the national year-over-year change was modest, regional differences were more pronounced. The West’s decline in vacancy rates suggests that local supply and demand conditions can diverge significantly from the national trend.

10-Year Change

The current rental vacancy rate of 7.3 percent is the highest since 2017, according to The Real Deal’s analysis of Census Bureau data. This marks a notable shift from the early 2020s, when vacancy rates reached recent lows following the COVID-19 pandemic. Since the Great Recession, vacancy rates nationally had generally declined, reflecting a long period of housing shortages in many markets.

The climb back to 7.3 percent does not mean the rental market has returned to the distressed conditions of the late 2000s. Instead, it reflects a supply-driven loosening: more apartments have been built, giving renters more options without signaling a broad economic downturn.

Factors Behind the Trend

The primary driver of the rising rental vacancy rate is a nationwide apartment building boom. Multifamily construction has added a large number of new rental units, particularly in fast-growing metro areas. This oversupply has pushed vacancy rates upward even as demand remains relatively stable.

• Multifamily oversupply: A wave of new apartment completions has increased rental inventory faster than household formation.
• Regional variation: The South, Northeast, and Midwest recorded annual increases in rental vacancy, while the West saw decreases.
• Construction, not collapse: Economists emphasize that the trend reflects new supply rather than falling demand or economic distress.
• Renter-friendly conditions: A national rental vacancy rate above 7 percent signals a decisively renter-friendly market, granting tenants more negotiating power.

Why It Matters

The rental vacancy rate is a leading indicator of rental market conditions. When the rate rises above 7 percent, renters typically gain the upper hand: landlords may offer concessions, slower rent increases, or more flexible lease terms to fill empty units. For policymakers and housing analysts, the rate helps gauge whether housing supply is keeping pace with demand.

The current 7.3 percent rate suggests that renters in many parts of the country have more choices than they have had in nearly a decade. At the same time, the homeowner vacancy rate remains very low at 1.2 percent, indicating that the for-sale housing market is still tight. This divergence highlights how the construction boom has been concentrated in rental housing rather than owner-occupied homes.

Methodology

The U.S. Census Bureau’s Housing Vacancy Survey (HVS) is a quarterly survey that provides national and regional estimates of rental and homeowner vacancy rates, homeownership rates, and related housing characteristics. The survey is conducted as part of the Current Population Survey and is not seasonally adjusted. The rental vacancy rate is computed as the number of vacant year-round units for rent divided by the sum of occupied rental units and vacant year-round units for rent.

The Census Bureau also publishes vacancy data from the American Community Survey (ACS), which provides more detailed annual estimates for states and local areas. The ACS defines vacancy rates similarly but uses a different sample and methodology, so small differences between HVS and ACS figures are expected.

Limitations of the Data

Like all survey-based estimates, the rental vacancy rate has limitations. The HVS is subject to sampling error, and quarter-to-quarter changes may not be statistically significant. For example, the Q2 2026 rate of 7.3 percent was not statistically different from the Q2 2025 rate of 7.0 percent, even though the point estimate increased.

The national rate also masks significant regional and local variation. A national rate of 7.3 percent may coexist with very tight rental markets in some cities and much higher vacancy rates in others. Additionally, the HVS is not seasonally adjusted, so comparisons should generally be made year-over-year rather than quarter-to-quarter.

National Comparison

The table below summarizes the year-over-year direction of rental vacancy rates by region in Q2 2026, based on reporting from The Real Deal and Census Bureau data.

The West was the only region to record decreases in both rental and homeowner vacancy rates compared with the previous year, underscoring that the national trend is not uniform. Local supply pipelines, population growth, and economic conditions all shape regional vacancy dynamics.

Source & Data Date

Primary source: U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Residential Vacancies and Homeownership, Second Quarter 2026, released July 28, 2026. Additional data and context were drawn from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED series Rental Vacancy Rate in the United States (RRVRUSQ156N), updated July 28, 2026; The Real Deal article “U.S. rental vacancy rates hit near-decade highs in 2026,” published July 30, 2026; and the Census Bureau report Homeowner and Rental Vacancies in the American Community Survey: 2008–2024, published May 2026.