Net Migration by State: 2025–2026 Rankings and Key Drivers

Domestic migration remained one of the most consequential demographic forces shaping the United States in 2025 and early 2026. According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Vintage 2025 population estimates, North Carolina recorded the largest net domestic migration gain (+84,064) between July 1, 2024 and July 1, 2025, while California posted the largest net domestic loss (−229,077). At the same time, proprietary moving data from HireAHelper shows Texas leading in total net migration gain (+68,318) for 2025, underscoring how different data sources and definitions can produce different rankings. The broad pattern, however, is consistent: Americans are continuing to leave high-cost coastal states for Sun Belt and Mountain West destinations.

Key Numbers

• Top net domestic gain: North Carolina +84,064 (Census Vintage 2025)
• Largest net domestic loss: California −229,077 (Census Vintage 2025)
• Top total net migration gain: Texas +68,318 (HireAHelper 2025)
• Top per capita net migration gain: South Carolina 79.7 residents per 10,000 people
• Largest state-to-state corridor: California to Texas, 77,198 ± 9,890 people (ACS 2024)
• Total adult movers in 2025: nearly 15 million, more than 4% of the adult population
• Estimated state-to-state corridors: 2,202, covering 7,124,428 weighted moves
• Other major corridors: New York to New Jersey 57,915; California to Nevada 53,816; Florida to Georgia 53,800

Explanation

Net migration measures the difference between the number of people moving into a state and the number moving out over a specific period. When more people arrive than leave, the state has positive net migration; when departures exceed arrivals, the state has negative net migration. This metric is a key component of population change, alongside births, deaths, and international migration.

The two most commonly cited figures in 2025–2026 come from different sources. The U.S. Census Bureau’s Vintage 2025 population estimates track net domestic migration between July 1, 2024 and July 1, 2025 using administrative records. The American Community Survey (ACS) 2024 1-year estimates ask respondents where they lived one year earlier, producing detailed state-to-state flow data. Private moving data, such as HireAHelper’s analysis of PGM data, captures all adult moves in 2025, including within-state and international relocations. Because these sources measure different things over different periods, their rankings can differ even when the underlying trend is the same.

In plain terms, the 2025–2026 data shows a continued but cooling migration wave. The pandemic-era surge that sent millions to Boise, Austin, and Bozeman has slowed, but the directional pull of affordability, jobs, and lower taxes still favors the Sun Belt and Mountain West over California, New York, and other high-cost coastal states.

Definition

Net migration is the difference between in-migration and out-migration for a given geography over a given period. Domestic net migration counts only moves within the United States, while total net migration may also include international arrivals. A positive value means more people moved in than out; a negative value means the state lost residents on net.

State-to-state migration corridors, such as California to Texas, measure the flow between two specific states. The Census Bureau’s American Community Survey asks respondents where they lived one year earlier, producing estimates of these corridors. The Census Bureau’s Vintage population estimates, by contrast, use administrative records to estimate net domestic migration for each state annually.

State Comparison

The top gaining and losing states differ depending on the data series. The Census Bureau’s Vintage 2025 estimates show North Carolina with the largest net domestic migration gain, while HireAHelper’s 2025 moving data shows Texas with the largest total net migration gain. The table below summarizes the leading states from each source.

South Carolina also led the nation in net migration gain per capita, adding 79.7 residents per 10,000 people, followed by Idaho at 63.2 and Delaware at 54.5.

Ranking Table

The largest state-to-state migration corridors from the ACS 2024 estimates show the continued pull of Texas and neighboring states for California residents, as well as significant flows within the Northeast and Southeast.

These corridors represent only a fraction of the 2,202 estimated state-to-state flows, but they highlight the dominant pattern of movement from high-cost, high-tax states to lower-cost alternatives.

Year-over-Year Change

The migration wave that defined the pandemic and its immediate aftermath has cooled. According to Placer.ai, return-to-office mandates, higher mortgage rates, and a shrinking affordability gap between coastal cities and former boomtowns have dampened the incentive to move. Even so, domestic migration remains a powerful force shaping local economies, housing markets, and consumer demand.

While exact year-over-year changes vary by state, the overall volume of long-distance moves has declined from its 2020–2021 peak. More people are choosing to relocate within their own state rather than cross long distances, and smaller metros are outpacing major cities on a per-capita basis.

Factors Behind the Trend

Several economic and lifestyle factors continue to drive state-to-state migration in 2025–2026:

• Affordability: Lower housing costs and overall cost of living in the Sun Belt and Mountain West attract residents from California, New York, and other expensive coastal states.
• Jobs: Economic opportunity, particularly in Texas, North Carolina, and Florida, remains a primary motivator for relocation.
• Taxes: States with no income tax, such as Texas and Nevada, continue to draw residents from high-tax states.
• Climate and lifestyle: Warmer weather and outdoor amenities in the South and West remain attractive, though extreme heat and housing supply constraints are emerging as counterweights.
• Remote and hybrid work: While return-to-office mandates have reduced some flexibility, many workers still have enough location freedom to choose lower-cost areas.

Why It Matters

Net migration directly affects political representation, federal funding, housing markets, labor supply, and consumer demand. States gaining residents must expand infrastructure, schools, and housing, while states losing residents face shrinking tax bases and potential economic stagnation. For businesses and investors, migration patterns signal where demand for housing, retail, and services will grow or decline.

Migration also reshapes the national political map. Population shifts from the Northeast and Midwest to the South and West influence congressional apportionment and Electoral College votes after each decennial census.

Methodology

The U.S. Census Bureau’s Vintage 2025 population estimates use administrative records, including tax returns and Medicare enrollment, to estimate net domestic migration for each state between July 1, 2024 and July 1, 2025. The American Community Survey 2024 1-year PUMS data asks respondents where they lived one year earlier, producing weighted estimates of state-to-state flows with margins of error.

HireAHelper’s 2026 migration report analyzes PGM data, which tracks adult moves in 2025, including within-state and international relocations. Because PGM data is proprietary and based on moving transactions, it may not align perfectly with Census estimates, but it provides a timely, granular view of moving behavior.

Limitations of the Data

The two sources measure different things: Census Vintage estimates net domestic migration between July 1, 2024 and July 1, 2025, while HireAHelper’s PGM data reflects all adult moves in 2025, including within-state and international moves.

Additional limitations include sampling error in ACS estimates, the one-year lag in ACS data, and the fact that administrative records may miss some moves, particularly among younger and lower-income populations. Private moving data may overrepresent certain demographics and undercount moves that do not involve professional moving services.

Historical Data

During the pandemic and its aftermath, millions of Americans left expensive coastal markets for lower-cost destinations across the Sun Belt. Boomtowns such as Bozeman, Boise, and Austin struggled to keep pace with the influx of new residents. That wave has since cooled, but the directional pattern established during those years persists in 2025–2026.

The California-to-Texas corridor has been the nation’s largest state-to-state flow for several years, and the 2024 ACS estimate of 77,198 people confirms its continued dominance. New York-to-New Jersey and California-to-Nevada also remain among the largest corridors, reflecting both suburbanization within metro areas and cross-state moves to lower-tax neighbors.

Map

A map of 2025–2026 net migration would show a clear Sun Belt and Mountain West band of population gain, stretching from North Carolina and South Carolina through Texas and into Idaho. The Northeast, Midwest, and California would appear as the primary sources of out-migration. Florida, while still a destination for many, also sends significant numbers of residents to Georgia, reflecting churn within the Southeast.

Key regional patterns include:

• South Atlantic: North Carolina and South Carolina are top gainers, driven by affordability and job growth.
• West South Central: Texas remains the largest total net migration gainer, attracting residents from California and other states.
• Mountain West: Idaho and Nevada continue to draw residents seeking lower costs and outdoor lifestyles.
• Pacific: California is the largest net domestic migration loser, though it still gains international migrants.
• Northeast: New York and other high-cost states continue to lose domestic residents, often to neighboring states or the Sun Belt.

Source & Data Date

Primary sources for this article include the U.S. Census Bureau’s Vintage 2025 population estimates, covering net domestic migration from July 1, 2024 to July 1, 2025; the American Community Survey 2024 1-year PUMS, which measures state-to-state flows based on residence one year earlier; and HireAHelper’s 2026 Moving Migration Report, which analyzes PGM data for all adult moves in 2025. Placer.ai’s June 2026 report on migration after the boom provided additional context on cooling trends. The OCity analysis of 2024 ACS flow estimates and Census Vintage 2025 net domestic migration was published in Q1 2026 and materially reviewed July 13, 2026.