U.S. Population by State: 2025 Census Estimates Show Texas and Florida Lead Growth as California Slips

The U.S. Census Bureau’s Vintage 2025 population estimates, released on January 27, 2026, show a nation growing at its slowest pace since the COVID-19 pandemic. The national population increased by just 0.5% between July 1, 2024, and July 1, 2025, even as state-level trends diverged sharply. California remained the most populous state but lost residents, while Texas and Florida added hundreds of thousands of people, reinforcing a long-term shift toward the South and Mountain West.

Key Numbers

• National growth rate: 0.5% (July 2024–July 2025)
• California population: 39,355,309 (largest state)
• Texas population: 31,710,000 (second largest)
• Texas numeric growth: +391,000 (largest gain)
• Florida numeric growth: +196,680
• California numeric change: -9,465
• Hawaii numeric change: -2,132
• Alaska population: 737,270 (smallest state in available data)

Explanation

State population estimates are annual snapshots of the number of people whose usual place of residence is in each state as of July 1. The U.S. Census Bureau produces these estimates by starting with the 2020 Census count and then adding births, subtracting deaths, and accounting for net domestic and international migration. The Vintage 2025 release is the most recent completed set of estimates and covers the period from April 1, 2020, to July 1, 2025.

The national growth rate of 0.5% between 2024 and 2025 was the slowest since the pandemic, according to the Census Bureau. The slowdown was driven primarily by a decline in net international migration. At the state level, however, the picture is far from uniform. Southern and Western states continued to attract new residents, while some large Northeastern and Midwestern states saw only modest gains or small declines.

California, the nation’s most populous state, lost about 9,500 residents over the year, while Hawaii also posted a small decline. In contrast, Texas added roughly 391,000 people and Florida added nearly 197,000. These shifts have implications for congressional representation, federal funding, and regional economic development.

State Comparison

The table below compares the ten most populous states using the latest Census Bureau estimates. Values are shown in thousands of persons for readability.

Ranking Table

The ranking of states by population remains stable at the top, but the gaps are changing. Texas and Florida are closing in on California and New York, respectively. The following list shows the top five states and their 2025 populations.

1. California: 39,355,309
2. Texas: 31,710,000
3. Florida: 23,462,518
4. New York: 20,002,000
5. Pennsylvania: 13,059,000

Year-over-Year Change

Between July 1, 2024, and July 1, 2025, the largest numeric population gains were concentrated in the South and West. Texas led all states with an increase of about 391,000 people, followed by Florida with about 197,000. North Carolina and Georgia also posted strong gains. At the other end, California and Hawaii were the only states in the available data to lose population.

Largest States

The four largest states have held their positions for decades, but the margins are shifting. California remains the most populous state by a wide margin, but its population has declined slightly. Texas, the second-largest state, is growing rapidly and could narrow the gap in the coming years if current trends continue. Florida, New York, and Pennsylvania round out the top five.

• California: 39,355,309
• Texas: 31,710,000
• Florida: 23,462,518
• New York: 20,002,000
• Pennsylvania: 13,059,000

Smallest States

Among the states with data in the Census Bureau’s Vintage 2025 table, Alaska is the smallest with 737,270 residents. Delaware, Hawaii, and Idaho are also relatively small. The District of Columbia, a federal district rather than a state, has 693,645 residents. Other small states such as Wyoming and Vermont are not shown in the available table but historically rank near the bottom.

• Alaska: 737,270
• Delaware: 1,059,952
• Hawaii: 1,432,820
• Idaho: 2,029,733
• District of Columbia (not a state): 693,645

Population Change

Population change at the state level is driven by three main components: natural change (births minus deaths), net domestic migration, and net international migration. The Census Bureau attributed the national slowdown in 2024–2025 to a decline in net international migration. Domestic migration patterns continued to favor Southern and Western states, while some Northeastern and Midwestern states saw little or no growth.

U.S. population growth slowed to 0.5% between July 1, 2024, and July 1, 2025, according to the newly released Vintage 2025 population estimates.

Historical Data

The Vintage 2025 release is part of an annual series that provides population estimates for each year from April 1, 2020, to July 1, 2025. This allows analysts to track how states have changed over the first half of the 2020s. The data show a clear pattern: the South and Mountain West have grown faster than the Northeast and Midwest, a trend that has been evident for several decades.

Methodology

The U.S. Census Bureau produces state population estimates using a cohort-component method. The base population is the 2020 Census count. Each year, the Bureau adds births, subtracts deaths, and estimates net domestic and international migration. The Vintage 2025 estimates incorporate the latest data on these components and are considered the most accurate available for July 1, 2025.

Why It Matters

State population estimates are used to allocate seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, distribute billions of dollars in federal funds, and guide state and local planning. Shifts in population toward the South and West can change political representation and economic priorities. Businesses also use these data to decide where to invest and expand.

Limitations of the Data

Population estimates are not exact counts; they are subject to revision as new data become available. Net international migration, in particular, can be difficult to estimate accurately. Small year-to-year changes, such as California’s decline of about 9,500 people, may be within the margin of error. The estimates reflect the population as of July 1, 2025, not the current date.

Source & Data Date

Primary source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Vintage 2025 National and State Population Estimates, released January 27, 2026. Data tables: NST-EST2025-POP and NST-EST2025-CHG. Additional data accessed via FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) and Trading Economics, which republish the Census Bureau estimates.