U.S. GDP by Quarter: Latest Quarterly Growth Rates and Annualized Data (Q2 2026)

The U.S. economy expanded at a modest 1.5 percent annual rate in the second quarter of 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s second estimate released August 26, 2026. The latest quarterly GDP reading shows a slowdown from the 2.1 percent pace in the first quarter and a sharp step down from the 4.4 percent surge in the third quarter of 2025. Understanding quarterly GDP growth—and how it is annualized—is essential for tracking the economy’s momentum.

Key Numbers

• Q2 2026 real GDP growth: 1.5 percent annual rate
• Q1 2026 real GDP growth: 2.1 percent annual rate
• Q4 2025 real GDP growth: 0.5 percent annual rate
• Q3 2025 real GDP growth: 4.4 percent annual rate
• Q2 2025 real GDP growth: 3.8 percent annual rate
• Key contributors in Q2 2026: consumer spending, exports, and investment increased
• Key drags in Q2 2026: government spending decreased and imports increased
• Release date: August 26, 2026 (second estimate)

Explanation

Gross domestic product, or GDP, is the broadest measure of the value of goods and services produced in the United States. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports GDP each quarter as a seasonally adjusted annual rate, which shows how much the economy would grow or shrink over a full year if the quarter’s pace continued. This annualized format makes it easier to compare quarters of different lengths and to see short-term momentum.

In the second quarter of 2026, real GDP—which strips out the effects of inflation—rose at a 1.5 percent annual rate. That was the same as the advance estimate released a month earlier. The BEA noted that an upward revision to consumer spending was partly offset by an upward revision to imports. Compared with the first quarter, the deceleration reflected a downturn in government spending and decelerations in investment and exports.

Because GDP is measured in real terms, the growth rate reflects changes in the actual volume of goods and services, not just price changes. This is important for understanding whether the economy is truly expanding or simply experiencing higher prices.

Definition

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total market value of all final goods and services produced within a country’s borders during a specific period. In the United States, the Bureau of Economic Analysis calculates GDP quarterly and annually. The quarterly growth rate is expressed as a percent change from the preceding period at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, often abbreviated as SAAR.

Historical Data

The table below shows the most recent quarterly real GDP growth rates reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. All figures are seasonally adjusted annual rates.

These figures show a pattern of strong growth in mid-2025, a sharp slowdown in late 2025, a rebound in early 2026, and more moderate growth in the second quarter of 2026.

How GDP Is Calculated

The BEA uses the expenditure approach to calculate GDP, summing four major components: personal consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, government consumption expenditures and gross investment, and net exports (exports minus imports). The formula is often written as:

GDP = C + I + G + (X − M)

In the second quarter of 2026, increases in consumer spending (C), exports (X), and investment (I) contributed to growth. A decrease in government spending (G) and an increase in imports (M) subtracted from GDP.

Nominal vs Real GDP

Nominal GDP measures the value of output using current prices, while real GDP adjusts for inflation by using constant prices from a base year. Real GDP is the preferred measure for comparing economic growth over time because it removes the effect of price changes. The quarterly growth rates reported in this article are for real GDP.

GDP Per Capita

GDP per capita divides total GDP by the population, providing a rough measure of average economic output per person. While the BEA’s quarterly GDP release focuses on the overall growth rate, per capita figures are often used to compare living standards across states and countries. Changes in GDP per capita depend on both GDP growth and population growth.

Current U.S. GDP

As of the second quarter of 2026, U.S. real GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.5 percent. The BEA’s second estimate, released August 26, 2026, confirmed the advance estimate. The contributors to the increase were increases in consumer spending, exports, and investment, partly offset by a decrease in government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

Historical Trend

Recent quarterly GDP growth has been uneven. After a 3.8 percent pace in Q2 2025 and a 4.4 percent pace in Q3 2025, growth slowed dramatically to 0.5 percent in Q4 2025. It then rebounded to 2.1 percent in Q1 2026 before settling at 1.5 percent in Q2 2026. This pattern highlights the quarter-to-quarter volatility that can occur even when the underlying economy remains in expansion.

• Q2 2025: 3.8% — strong consumer and business activity
• Q3 2025: 4.4% — fastest recent quarter
• Q4 2025: 0.5% — sharp slowdown
• Q1 2026: 2.1% — rebound
• Q2 2026: 1.5% — moderate growth

Why It Matters

GDP growth is one of the most closely watched indicators of economic health. It influences Federal Reserve policy, business investment decisions, and government budget planning. A growing economy generally supports job creation and rising incomes, while a shrinking economy can signal recession. Quarterly GDP data help policymakers and analysts identify turning points in the business cycle.

Factors Behind the Trend

The BEA’s second-quarter report identified several factors behind the latest growth rate. Consumer spending, exports, and investment all increased, providing positive contributions. However, government spending decreased, and imports increased. Because imports are subtracted in the GDP calculation, a rise in imports can reduce measured GDP growth even if it reflects strong domestic demand.

Compared with the first quarter, the deceleration in real GDP reflected a downturn in government spending and decelerations in investment and exports. These were partly offset by other components, according to the BEA.

Limitations of the Data

Quarterly GDP estimates are subject to revision as more complete data become available. The BEA releases an advance estimate, a second estimate, and a third estimate for each quarter. Annualized rates can also exaggerate short-term movements because they assume the quarterly pace continues for a full year. Additionally, GDP does not capture all aspects of economic well-being, such as income distribution, environmental quality, or unpaid work.

Real GDP increased at the same rate as in the advance estimate. An upward revision to consumer spending was partly offset by an upward revision to imports.

Source & Data Date

Primary source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, ‘GDP (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits, 2nd Quarter 2026,’ released August 26, 2026. Quarterly real GDP growth rates are also available from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED series A191RL1Q225SBEA, updated July 30, 2026. The next GDP release is scheduled for September 30, 2026.